The Dow closed at a record high Friday as optimism around renewed Iran nuclear talks lifted the tape, but the week's real story played out in the trade ledger. Nine positions exited over the last seven sessions. Six winners. Three losers. A 67% win rate and a 6.0% average return across roughly a month of hold time. The math works the way it's supposed to: losses stay small, winners get room to run, and the portfolio keeps compounding.
The Week in Trades
GRMN was the standout — +30.3% in 50 days. Garmin's aviation and marine segments have been quietly printing cash while the market obsessed over AI capex cycles. The position closed July 30. MSFT added +13.9% over 34 days, exiting July 31. Microsoft's cloud momentum remains the steadiest compounder in mega-cap tech, and the trade captured a clean leg higher. BKNG delivered +7.3% in just two days — a reminder that sometimes the best risk/reward shows up in compressed timeframes.
On the loss side, WMT gave back -8.0% over 46 days. Retail's been choppy all summer; Walmart's guidance reset in May set up a longer base than the system anticipated. The exit on July 30 was the risk overlay doing its job — a defined, limited loss that preserves capital for the next setup. CME slipped -3.7% over 41 days. Exchange volumes have been light with the VIX pinned low; when traders don't trade, exchanges don't earn. PPL was a quick -0.9% over three days — barely a scratch, really, the cost of testing a utility breakout that didn't follow through.
EWQ (+5.6% in 63 days), TDG (+4.5% in 11 days), and TJX (+4.8% in 20 days) rounded out the winners. TransDigm's aftermarket aerospace moat continues to compound at high incremental returns. TJX proved again that off-price retail eats share in any consumer environment. The France ETF ride coincided with European equities outperforming on rate-cut optimism.
Net result: the portfolio sits with 94 open positions across a 257-name qualified universe. The risk overlay remains active. Drawdowns are the drawdowns you don't experience because the system sidesteps them.
Market Backdrop
Friday's rally was geopolitical, not fundamental. Reuters reported the Dow hit a record on "Iran talks optimism," while Trump warned of "decapitation" if Tehran doesn't strike a deal. The contradiction is the market — it prices the best case while the headlines scream worst case. Oil barely budged; Reuters noted the OPEC+ output hike is "irrelevant for now, not for later," which is analyst-speak for "we'll worry about supply when demand shows up."
Boeing was the single-name story of the week. CNBC highlighted a "trio of positive developments" sending shares soaring: a key certification milestone, a major airline order, and progress on the 777X timeline. After years of self-inflicted wounds, the stock is finally reacting to good news instead of ignoring it.
Starbucks got a notable upgrade. CNBC reported a longtime bear changed his tune, citing valuation and the new CEO's operational focus. Sometimes the best catalyst is simply the market running out of sellers.
UBS took a $125 million fine from U.S. regulators over money-laundering violations — Reuters' wording. For a bank with a $60 billion market cap, it's a rounding error. The reputational overhang matters more than the check.
What to Watch
BA (Boeing) — The "trio of positive developments" CNBC cited (certification progress, a sizable airline order, 777X momentum) finally gave the market a reason to buy instead of just hope. Watch for 737 MAX delivery cadence in the July numbers and any 777X firm orders at Farnborough. The stock's reaction to good news is a regime change from the last three years.
SBUX (Starbucks) — A prominent bear's upgrade (CNBC) signals the short thesis is exhausted. New CEO Brian Niccol's first 90 days are the real catalyst: labor-hour productivity, China same-store sales trajectory, and whether the "third place" remodel drives traffic or just costs. Earnings in early November will be the first real report card.
UBS (UBS) — The $125 million FinCEN fine (Reuters) is financially immaterial but keeps the compliance overhang alive. Watch for any restriction on U.S. dollar clearing or new consent-order language. The stock has discounted a lot of bad news; the question is whether capital return clarity (buybacks, dividend) can outweigh regulatory drag.
MSFT (Microsoft) — The trade ledger shows a +13.9% winner closed July 31 after 34 days, and the name remains on the radar with signal activity this week. Capex guidance at the September analyst day — specifically the split between AI infrastructure and core cloud — will set the next leg.
SKYY / FDN / XLC (Cloud, Internet, Comm Services ETFs) — All three showed signal activity this week. The Dow's record close on geopolitical optimism (Reuters) lifted the broad tape, but these ETFs are beta plays on the AI capex cycle and digital ad recovery. Watch NVDA's August 28 earnings for the semiconductor pulse check; it dictates the group's near-term narrative.
CME (CME Group) — The exchange closed a -3.7% position over 41 days (July 30 exit). Low volatility has compressed transaction revenue, but the September Fed meeting is a binary catalyst: a rate-cut cycle typically revives hedging volumes. Signal activity this week suggests the system is watching for a volatility inflection.
GRMN (Garmin) — Just booked a +30.3% winner in 50 days (July 30 exit). Aviation OEM fit rates and marine aftermarket attach rates are the fundamental drivers nobody talks about. The name popped back on the radar this week — watch for the August 7 earnings call commentary on auto OEM diversification.
EWQ (iShares MSCI France ETF) — A +5.6% winner over 63 days (July 31 exit) that also showed signal activity this week. French equities have benefited from political stability post-election and ECB rate-cut momentum. The budget negotiation timeline in Paris (October) is the next macro hinge.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Daloop is a research tool, not investment advice.
If you want to see the full trade ledger — every win and every loss — it's on the dashboard.