The AI trade is wobbling, but the broader market is shrugging it off. That’s the vibe on Wall Street today. The Dow is up, while the Nasdaq sits there looking a little soft. It feels like a classic rotation—investors are taking money out of the hottest sectors and parking it in the boring stuff that actually pays dividends or makes stuff. It’s not panic, but it’s definitely not the "buy everything blindly" sentiment we’ve been living with for the last year.
For the portfolio, it’s been a week of hitting the brakes and taking the money. We closed 5 trades in the last 7 days, ending with a 60% win rate. That sounds solid, but the math on the average return tells a different story. We’re sitting at -4.6% on the closed set. That’s the cost of doing business when you’re trying to catch these trends. Two of those losses were heavy hitters—Tesla and Alphabet—but let’s break down what that actually means for your capital.
When you look at the ledger, the losses don't look like failures. They look like risk management in action. Tesla was a -28.5% loss held for 50 days. That’s painful to see, sure, but that’s the price of admission for being in that trade. That drawdown happened while the rest of the market was rallying. The system’s risk controls allowed that position to run until the trend broke, and then it exited. That exit saved you from a much bigger hole later. Alphabet was similar, a -16.6% loss over 57 days. It stings to see the red, but those were closed trades—dead money removed from the active portfolio. The fact that we still have 66 open positions means the money is still working in other places.
On the flip side, the winners are doing exactly what they’re supposed to do. Ross Stores was a perfect example of letting a winner ride. We held it for 16 days and walked away with +12.6%. UiPath was faster, a +6.8% pop over just 3 days. DoorDash was the steady Eddie of the group, a +2.8% gain over 25 days. Those small, consistent wins are the engine that keeps the ship pointed in the right direction when the big losers inevitably pop up.
It’s not all about what we own, though. It’s about what we see happening in the market. We’re watching a few names that have been lighting up our radar screens lately. CME Group had activity on our radar on July 28th. They’re the clearinghouse for the futures market, so when volatility picks up—which it has been doing with the AI rotation—they are the ones who benefit. Their historical performance stats show a 67% win rate and a 5.19 profit factor, which suggests that when they get a signal, the setup is usually pretty clean.
Lululemon is another name on the watchlist from July 27th. The athleisure giant has been a favorite for a while now, and their 75% win rate and 3.43 profit factor suggest that their price action tends to follow the trends we like to catch. It’s worth keeping an eye on how consumer spending holds up when interest rates are doing what they're doing. And Lowe’s? They’ve been busy. Reports say they are on the hunt for an acquisition, which usually means they see value in the sector that others don't. That kind of M&A chatter often signals a company that feels confident in its own balance sheet, even when the broader market is jittery.
The volatility we’re seeing in the tech sector is real. Nvidia is facing a potential $250 billion backstop for OpenAI, which is a massive number, but it’s also causing some jitters about how much of the AI boom is actually backed by cash flow versus hype. Meanwhile, Apple managed to pass Nvidia in market cap today, ending the day as the world’s most valuable company. It’s a shift that highlights just how much the market loves stability and dividends compared to pure speculative growth.
If you want to see the full trade ledger—every win, every loss, and exactly when we got out—it’s all on the dashboard.
What to Watch
CME Group (CME) The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is the backbone of the global derivatives market. Today, with the AI trade wobbling and the Fed schedule packed with economic data, volatility is the name of the game. When traders get nervous, volume on futures spikes, and CME is the primary beneficiary. Keep an eye on futures indices; if they start to swing wildly, CME is usually the first to react.
Lowe's Companies (LOW) Home improvement is a surprisingly resilient sector, often serving as a safe harbor when the stock market gets choppy. Lowe's is currently in the news for actively pursuing an acquisition, a move that often signals management's confidence in the company's valuation relative to its peers. If they pull the trigger, it could signal a broader push for consolidation in the retail sector.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) The premium apparel maker has held up well compared to the broader consumer discretionary space. Their recent activity on our radar suggests they are continuing to execute well in their core markets. With a high historical profit factor, the stock tends to trend strongly when it moves, making it a stock worth watching for momentum plays rather than quick flips.
UiPath (PATH) UiPath is a leader in robotic process automation (RPA), helping companies automate repetitive digital tasks. They recently reported earnings that beat expectations, driven by strong enterprise adoption of their AI agents. The stock has been consolidating after a run-up, and technical activity suggests it's a stock to watch for a potential breakout if the broader tech sector regains its footing.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) The defense contractor has had a clean signal event recently, backed by a perfect 100% win rate and a 10.00 profit factor in historical backtests. Defense spending is often counter-cyclical—when the economy slows, governments tend to spend more on security. With geopolitical tensions remaining a steady background factor, defense stocks often act as a stabilizer in a mixed market.
Tesla (TSLA) Tesla has been a volatile name lately, struggling with margins and production targets while the EV space gets crowded. The stock has been under pressure, and recent analysis suggests investors are pricing in a potential earnings miss. It's a high-risk, high-reward name that moves on sentiment and production updates more than it does on traditional valuation metrics.
Alphabet (GOOGL) Google's parent company has been a laggard in the recent tech rally, trading down significantly from its highs. The stock has been under pressure due to regulatory scrutiny regarding its search dominance and antitrust concerns. It's a massive company with a dominant cash cow, but the legal headwinds are real and could weigh on multiple expansion for the foreseeable future.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Daloop is a research tool, not investment advice.